Yale University: Full U.S. Cannabis Legalization Would Generate $111 Billion Over 10 Years
Currently, 24 states in the U.S. have adopted adult-use cannabis legalization measures, with legal recreational sales occurring in almost all of those states. Recreational cannabis remains prohibited at the federal level in the United States. Additionally, 40 states have adopted medical cannabis legalization, and the federal government is working to reschedule cannabis, which will provide a boost to the nation’s medical cannabis industry.
According to a recent analysis by Yale University’s Budget Lab, legalizing and taxing both medical and adult-use cannabis at the federal level in the U.S. and in all 50 states would generate billions of dollars over the course of a decade.
“Were the federal government to make marijuana legal for both medical and adult recreational use, what would be the federal revenue possibilities from a new excise tax? There are many uncertainties when making such a calculation, but our best estimate is that federal legalization and an excise tax of $0.00625 per mg of THC would yield $57.9 billion over the course of ten years.” the Budget Lab wrote about its analysis.
“A more sweeping reform, in which both the federal government and all remaining state governments legalize marijuana, would yield $111.3 billion over ten years.” the Budget Lab added.
The Marijuana Policy Project (MPP) recently published a report highlighting that total tax revenue from legal adult-use cannabis sales alone in the United States has surpassed $28 billion. The first legal adult-use cannabis transaction occurred at the start of 2014 in Colorado, followed by sales launching in Washington State in mid-2014.
“States have generated a combined total of more than $28.4 billion in tax revenue from legal adult-use cannabis sales since the first markets launched in Colorado and Washington in 2014, according to a comprehensive new state-by-state report published by the Marijuana Policy Project (MPP). ” MPP wrote in a press release.
“In 2025 alone, legalization states collectively generated more than $4.57 billion in cannabis tax revenue from adult-use sales, which is the most revenue generated by cannabis sales in a single year. Further, seven states collected over $200 million in adult-use cannabis taxes. Three of those states — California, Illinois, and Michigan — generated over $500 million in revenue, one of which (California) collected over $1 billion.” MPP added.
The legal cannabis industry in the United States currently supports 412,500 full-time jobs, according to the 2026 U.S. Cannabis Jobs Report. The report was created by cannabis industry hiring and staffing platform Vangst in collaboration with global business and economic consulting firm Whitney Economics. Cannabis industry revenue in the United States is expected to top $30 billion in 2026, according to Whitney Economics.
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